The hottest natural rubber market will continue to

2022-08-08
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The natural rubber market will continue to decline

at present, the price of natural rubber has fallen from 29000 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the end of April to 24000 yuan, a decline of nearly 20%. On the whole, the decline of natural rubber is difficult to change, and the future market will continue to decline

supply has entered the peak period

after entering may, the supply of rubber has entered the peak season, and the natural rubber market is in the stage of increasing global supply. According to a recent report released by the international rubber research organization, the output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 3.2% to 11.3 million tons this year. It can be seen that the supply of natural rubber has not been affected by the climate, and there has been a reduction in production, while achieving the standard discharge of three wastes. The growth of rubber supply inhibits the rise of rubber prices

according to the statistical data of the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) and the International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG), the global natural rubber planting area is close to 11million hectares, and the annual production capacity is close to 10million tons, of which the production capacity of ANRPC member countries accounts for 92% - 96% of the total global production capacity. In the past two years, the high price of rubber has stimulated the enthusiasm of rubber farmers, and the planting and renewal of rubber have a good momentum of development. Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other three major rubber production areas have witnessed steady growth in rubber, while Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and other countries have vigorously developed the rubber industry

in the early stage, Thailand once bought natural rubber in its central market, and the spot price of natural rubber also stabilized in the short term. However, the Thai government did not follow up in the late stage, and the spot traders were disappointed. Thailand's proposal to work with Indonesia and Malaysia Rubber Association to boost the price of natural rubber was also supported by Indonesia rubber TECHNYL reg; Redx was rejected by the rubber association with lower materials and production costs. Under the situation of prominent price advantages of standard glue in Indonesia and Malaysia, Thai suppliers can only choose to ship at a low price in the face of recent sales pressure

declining demand and high inventory

statistics from the China Automobile Association show that from January to April this year, the output of domestic cars increased by 0.47% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 1.33%. In the first four months of this year, automobile production and sales stabilized. At the end of April, auto expanded the utilization range of high-performance composites, and the inventory of auto enterprises was 757400, an increase of 24100 over the end of March, and higher than the highest level in 2011

from the domestic situation, the economic growth rate slows down, the volume of freight logistics industry decreases, and the demand for truck tires decreases; The engineering investment is reduced, and the demand for engineering tires is sharply reduced; The growth of the automobile industry is weak, and the demand for passenger tires is no longer light. The operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises is generally about 70%, and the inventory of most manufacturers has exceeded the output of one month, so the production and operation are in trouble

since the middle of May, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Bonded Port has increased again. According to insiders, at present, the rubber inventory in Qingdao bonded port area has reached 170000 tons, and with the increase of the arrival of trading merchant ships in June, the rubber inventory will also increase

combined with the current global and Chinese economic process, the demand for natural rubber will continue to remain depressed from June to August. Insufficient demand for rubber is not conducive to the upward price of rubber, and the protection cost behind it is too high

the decline in crude oil prices has hit confidence

the current international crude oil price has broken the US $90/barrel mark, which will drive the price of synthetic rubber with oil as raw material to decline, forming a reverse inhibition on the price of natural rubber. The European debt crisis is far from being resolved, the world's auto consumption continues to decline, and commodity prices are still bottoming out, all of which are not conducive to the long rubber market

in order to cope with the impact of the deterioration of the current domestic and international economic environment and prevent a trend decline in economic growth, China will further strengthen the policy of stabilizing growth. It is understood that the Chinese government plans to introduce policies to stimulate the development of the automobile industry, and a new round of policies such as replacing old vehicles with new ones and going to the countryside are expected to be introduced soon. We need to pay close attention to how much the new policy will boost the whole market

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