The hottest natural rubber may usher in the era of

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Natural rubber may usher in an era of 50000 yuan

it is estimated that the economic recovery and tight supply in 2011 will lead to a supply gap of nearly 70000 tons of natural rubber. We predict that the average price of Shanghai Rubber in 2011 will be 35000 yuan/ton; Combined with the balance of supply and demand and macroeconomic data, it is expected that the high point of Shanghai Jiaotong in 2011 will appear in the second quarter of 2011, and the price during this period may reach 50000 yuan/ton

on January 4, the first trading day of 2010, the main ru1005 contract of Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Industry Co., Ltd. opened at 24595 yuan/ton, marking the beginning of a crazy rise. As of December 21, the following positions were lubricated every 3 (6) months: the contract closed at 37685 yuan/ton, up 13090 yuan/ton for the whole year, or 53.2%. The annual lowest point is 20055 yuan/ton on June 8, 2010, and the annual highest point is 38920 yuan/ton on November 11, 2010

2010 is a year of revaluation of natural rubber. Against the background of abundant global liquidity, the natural rubber market has stood firmly at the top of the bull market after experiencing the bear market in 2008 and the bull market in 2009

since 2002, China has become the world's largest consumer and importer of natural rubber. In that year, 1.4 million tons of natural rubber were consumed and 950000 tons were imported. The self-sufficiency capacity of natural rubber decreased from more than 60% in the last century to less than 40%. By 2009, China's consumption has increased rapidly, with an annual demand of 2.7 million tons and an import of 1.71 million tons (excluding 1.02 million tons of composite rubber with a content of more than 95% of natural rubber). In 2010, the consumption will reach 2.89 million tons (an estimated 3.12 million tons). It is expected to introduce the new material industry into Zibo City nbsp; How can third tier cities transform through entrepreneurship? The export volume will exceed 2million tons, and the self-sufficiency capacity of natural rubber in China will drop to about 20%

please call to inquire about the fundamentals. The new problems affecting the global natural rubber supply in 2011 mainly include:

first, the aging proportion of rubber trees is increasing: in the past two years, due to the continuous rise in the price of natural rubber, most ANRPC member countries have slowed down the renewal speed of rubber trees, and the aging proportion of rubber trees is increasing

second, the variety structure of rubber trees is constantly changing: at present, there are more and more rubber trees with multiple strains mixed by rubber farmers

third, rubber planting areas in each country where rubber trees are located are migrating: the area of planting rubber in non-traditional rubber planting areas is increasing, these new areas do not fully have the agricultural climate of planting rubber, enterprises also lack rubber cultivation technology, non production cycle is long, and the output per unit area is low

fourth, the scale of rubber plantations has become smaller: the scale and output of rubber plantations vary greatly in different countries, such as India and Vietnam. India's rubber production ranks fourth in the world and its consumption ranks second in the world. However, India's rubber industrial structure is that small rubber plantations account for 89% of the country's total, and the output accounts for 93% of the country's total<2. Input the parameters of the test machine sample/p>

fifthly, the relationship between rubber production and climate is complex: with the complexity and variability of the current global climate, the global climate has become increasingly unpredictable. Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme weather such as extreme heat, hurricanes, floods and droughts. The relationship between climate and yield is very complex. The impact of climate change on rubber production can be positive or negative

Sixth, the land suitable for planting rubber is becoming more and more limited, the lack of skilled labor, and the replacement of rubber planting land

finally, the policy direction is changing: at present, the general trend in the world is to adopt low-strength rubber picking technology, plant varieties with excellent bakelite and increase other sideline income. From focusing on rubber trees to focusing on people, from maximizing output to maximizing profits and competitiveness

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