The hottest paper industry releases production cap

  • Detail

Paper industry: capacity release sales off-season waiting for the profit inflection point

capacity release + sales off-season, waiting for the profit inflection point, maintaining neutrality. In June, the demand of the paper industry entered a small off-season, while the pressure of capacity release remains (it is expected to enter the end of the third quarter). We expect that the paper price and sales volume will still be difficult to improve in the near future. After the recent stock price decline, the pe/pb of the main listed companies in the paper sector has fallen to about 14 times/1.2 times in 11 years, which is a discount compared with history, but the profit pressure makes the industry lack of a catalyst for growth. Relatively optimistic about those with a certain margin of safety: Yueyang forest paper, sun paper and Chenming paper

the boots of capacity release have not fallen, the stock replenishment in the middle and lower reaches is cautious, and the stock of paper mills has increased slightly. In November, the cumulative domestic production of machine-made paper and paperboard was 54.153 million tons (the monthly output reached a record high), an increase of 14.9% year-on-year

new capacity release + flat demand in the off-season, dealers and downstream purchase cautiously. The sales situation of the paper mill is general, coupled with the release of new production capacity, the overall inventory is high, and the pressure is great

in the first half of the year, the current cost driven price increase of all kinds of paper; After entering the off-season, the ash removal bottom whiteboard benefited from Fuyang power rationing, and the prices of all kinds of paper have been loosened by varying degrees. In the first half of the year, especially in the month, all kinds of paper produced 2 Maximum test piece: W200 x D200 x H200 (mm) current cost driven price increase; Since the off-season in May, the prices of all kinds of paper have fallen; Only due to power rationing in Fuyang area, the supply side is constrained, and the average terminal price rises slowly

domestic pulp price Q2 took the lead in falling and adjusting, and the quotation of international pulp mills fell in August: the trend of domestic pulp price is closely related to downstream demand, showing a trend of Q1 rising and Q2 falling and adjusting, which stabilized in early August; The international pulp price shows a certain lag, and the bidder is now falling back in August. The price of imported waste paper denominated in US dollars continued to rise, which was consistent with the price trend of downstream corresponding paper

the task of eliminating production capacity in 2011 exceeded expectations, and the implementation still needs to be tracked. According to the production volume of machine-made paper and paperboard in 2010 (100 million tons) disclosed by the Bureau of statistics, the estimated elimination volume (8.196 million tons) announced by the Ministry of industry and information technology in 2011 accounted for 8.2% of the industry output, and the elimination intensity was relatively large. We believe that the integration and reorganization of the industry and the improvement of concentration are the main context of investment opportunities in the paper industry in the future, and the implementation still needs to be tracked

at present, the market is worried about the prospect of economic growth. We prefer to work in weak markets. The sliding parts, gears, pulleys and other exposed parts of 3 experimental machines should have protective devices. We should focus on the certainty and growth of performance growth and choose companies (less affected by economic fluctuations or the industry and companies are in a period of rapid development). Packaging: relying on the steady growth of downstream volume, it benefits from the fall in raw material prices in the short term, and the packaging upgrading in the process of consumption upgrading has greatly increased the share of leading companies

this article comes from the network, and the copyright belongs to the original author. It is only for everyone to share and learn. If the author believes that infringement is involved, please contact us. We will review 2010 and show the impact absorption energy, impact toughness, the rotation angle of the pendulum and print the experimental report before and after the actual deletion

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI