The hottest paper industry starts to make profits,

2022-09-30
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The paper industry starts to make profits to repair the packaging paper, which may once again show the tide of rising prices. Release date: Source: Chinese paper views: 6747. Research on the construction process and quality control technology of geothermal regeneration technology. Copyright and disclaimer. Core tip: the report compares and analyzes the inventory and price of packaging paper, the price of domestic waste, the import of foreign waste, and the inventory and price of wood pulp, The preliminary conclusion that "the profitability of the paper industry begins to repair" is reached

through the comparative analysis of the inventory and price of packaging paper, the price of domestic waste, the import of foreign waste, as well as the inventory and price of wood pulp, the report came to the preliminary conclusion that "the profits of the paper industry began to repair"

next, let's analyze it in detail

in terms of packaging paper

in October this year, the average number of days of corrugated paper in boxes nationwide was 9.86 days, basically at a relatively low historical level

from the perspective of demand, in September this year, the domestic demand for box board paper and corrugated paper increased by 810000 tons and 660000 tons respectively year-on-year

affected by the low inventory level and the accuracy of demand recovery calculation, the price of wrapping paper began to rise in September. At the same time, due to the dual effect of the Spring Festival peak demand season + Giant downtime, this round of paper prices will continue to rise in the short term

in the third quarter of this year, the comprehensive gross profit margin of the paper sector increased by 19.79% and 4.81pct month on month

in terms of waste paper

considering the current low domestic packaging paper inventory and the reality that there is a recovery in demand in the short term, with the complete ban on import of foreign waste at the end of next year, it is expected that the quota of foreign waste will be reduced to 7-8 million tons next year, resulting in a gap of about 7 million tons of domestic waste paper next year

the import volume of waste paper has decreased sharply, and the recovery rate of waste paper in China is not high, resulting in the continuous tightening of raw materials, which will trigger the strengthening of packaging paper prices

three ways to deal with the waste paper gap

there are three main ways to deal with the waste paper gap under the foreign waste ban:

1) direct import of finished paper: in 2018, the number of corrugated paper and box board paper imported domestically was

1111200 tons and 1353900 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 71.32% and 51.03%. Although the import of base paper increases rapidly, its absolute volume is relatively small. Compared with the demand of nearly 5000 scientific and technological groups with limited tons of packaging paper in China each year, the imported base paper of packaging paper is difficult to form compensation in the short term

2) wood pulp papermaking: at present, both domestic and international pulp prices are relatively low. But compared with waste paper, the price of wood pulp is significantly higher. If wood pulp is used for packaging paper manufacturing, it will not only stimulate the demand for wood pulp, but also increase the cost and promote the price of base paper

3) overseas waste pulp production capacity of leading paper enterprises. The overseas layout of waste pulp production capacity of paper enterprises is more reasonable. Compared with small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on domestic waste production, leading paper enterprises with the ability to complete overseas waste paper recycling and pulp will have more cost advantages under the tightening of raw material supply

wood pulp

in September, the inventory days of international wood pulp ports were 44 days, a month on month decrease of 4 days, the inventory volume decreased by 0.48% month on month, and the inventory in October decreased by 5.29%

the global wood pulp shipment volume was 4.75 million tons in September, with a month on month increase of 3.17% and 4.03% respectively. In the short term, the sampling of rolled sections or forgings should consider whether the surface has decarburization, folding and other shortcomings, and the demand for spherical wood pulp has warmed up

benefiting from this, the international pulp price began to stabilize in September this year, and the internal pulp price basically stopped the downward trend in November. In the short term, the wood pulp price has certain support, and the probability of continued decline is small

in the long run, according to pppc statistics, the global supply of broad-leaved pulp is expected to be 39.57 million tons this year, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.51%, and the demand is 34.32 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.95%

in the next four years, it is expected that the new capacity of global broad-leaved pulp will be 2.91 million tons, while the new demand will be 3.91 million tons. On the other hand, according to Bloomberg statistics, it is expected that the global new wood pulp production capacity will be only 1.3 million tons next year

on the whole, the new output of global wood pulp will not increase much in the future, and the demand growth will be faster than the capacity growth to a certain extent. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the price of wood pulp has a warm rise basis

to sum up, in the short term, the papermaking sector has started to recover profits. In the medium and long term, the deadline for the ban on foreign waste is approaching, and the tightening of raw material supply will push up the price of national waste, and packaging paper may once again show a rise in prices

under this trend, sun paper and Shanying paper, which have the capacity to complete overseas waste paper recycling and waste pulp manufacturing, and have high certainty of future capacity investment, will continue to make profits

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