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Paper industry research report: resources and product structure advantages create industry leaders

in the next few years, the paper industry still has great room for development in three aspects. First, the industrial chain of forest paper integration is extended to improve the self supply capacity of fiber raw materials; Second, the horizontal integration of advantageous enterprises and the organizational structure of advantageous industries; Third, the business model of circular economy, reduce consumption and emissions

therefore, we believe that two main investment lines should be grasped in 2008: one is a forest paper integrated enterprise with the ability to acquire resources and resources, and the other is a company with a large increase in performance or strong ability to continue to grow in the future due to changes in the structure of products and raw materials. Give the investment rating held by the paper industry

the supply and demand of the industry are basically balanced

in 2006, the consumption and production of paper and paperboard in China reached 66 million tons and 65 million tons respectively, an increase of 11.3% and 16.07% over 2005. The growth rate of output is 5.23 percentage points higher than that of consumption, and the supply and demand are basically balanced

the output of the industry increased rapidly, and the growth rate of investment picked up. In January and October 2007, the output of paper and paperboard reached 64.1309 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, including 3.8893 million tons of paper, an increase of 17.7%. We predict that in 2007, the output of paper and paperboard will reach 73.645 million tons, of which 4.45 million tons will be paper. Paper production continued to maintain high growth. At the same time, due to the fall in investment growth in 2006, the rapid growth of production capacity has eased

in the first half of 2007, the growth rate of industrial investment rebounded. In the first half of 2007, the paper industry completed a cumulative fixed asset investment of 35.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.5%, while in the first half of 2006, the growth rate was 18.3%, and the growth rate rebounded

industry exports increased significantly. In recent years, China's paper industry has developed rapidly, and the level of equipment and overall competitiveness have been greatly improved. The vast majority of paper products can fully meet the needs of the domestic market in terms of output and quality, and some of them have begun to be exported in batches. Since 2006, the net import of some paper products has changed to net export, such as paper products

according to customs statistics, in January and September 2007, the total import volume was 3.1352 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and the total export volume was 3.31 million tons, close to the export volume of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 41%. Exports continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend. The substantial growth of export volume partially eased the supply pressure of the industry's new capacity on the domestic market

the profit level was first suppressed and then increased

in 2007, favorable policy factors and adverse constraints affecting the development of the paper industry coexisted. The continuous rise of raw material costs, environmental protection and resource constraints continued to affect the profit level of the paper industry and change the profit model and competition pattern of the paper industry. In 2007, the profitability of most enterprises was first suppressed and then increased

the rapid expansion of production capacity, the lagging development of fiber resources and the resulting increase in dependence on imports of raw materials have increased China's rigid demand for imported raw materials. In recent years, the continuous rise in raw material prices has not changed the current situation of annual increase in raw material imports. On the other hand, due to the saturation of production capacity and the oversupply of some products, the supply rigidity of products increases, which lags behind the price transmission of the rise in raw material prices. The rise in raw material prices requires enterprises to reduce the profit space of products to digest. In the first half of 2007, the rise of raw material prices did not drive the rise of product prices, and the profitability of most enterprises decreased

at the same time, the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies will increase the price of cultural paper and related paper products. In 2007, the favorable policy factor for the development of the industry was that the state strengthened the governance of energy conservation and emission reduction, and the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction made substantial progress. A number of small paper mills and paper-making enterprises that failed to meet the environmental protection standards were closed all over the country. The impact of this measure began to appear in the second half of the year. The supply of cultural paper decreased, the price rose, and the price of non wood pulp raw materials such as wheat straw and reed fell. The rise in the price of medium-grade cultural paper and the continuous rise in the price of raw materials have driven the general rise in the price of high-grade cultural paper and other paper products in the second half of the year. Due to the improvement of environmental protection equipment, large paper enterprises have become the beneficiaries of this energy conservation and emission reduction, and the direct beneficiaries are large cultural paper production enterprises. Therefore, this year, the profitability of most enterprises showed a trend of first restraining and then increasing

three development directions of the industry

we believe that China's paper industry has three development directions. First, vertical extension, improve the self supply capacity of fiber resources, and improve the current situation of shortage and development of fiber raw materials; Second, horizontal merger, optimize the enterprise structure, and achieve economies of scale; The third is to introduce the concept of circular economy of exhausting the use of resources to design the production system, reduce the consumption of fiber resources, reduce the emission of pollutants, and improve the business efficiency and environmental quality of enterprises at the same time

extend longitudinally to increase the supply of fiber resources. In the next few years, for SEBS foaming materials, there is still much room for the paper industry to extend. The industrial extension is mainly in two aspects: first, continue to promote the integration of forestry and paper in paper-making enterprises, expand the scale of forestry management, and improve the self supply capacity of wood pulp; second, the structural adjustment of non wood fiber resources will improve the development space for some companies

horizontal integration and optimization of industrial organization structure. According to our prediction of the total output of domestic paper and paperboard in 2010 of 92.77 million tons, if the total output of paper and paperboard of the top 30 pulp and paper enterprises accounts for 40% of the total output in 2010, the total output of paper and paperboard of the top 30 pulp and paper enterprises will reach 37.1 million tons. In the next four years, the total output of paper and paperboard of the top 30 pulp and paper enterprises will increase by 67.6%, with an average compound annual growth of 16.9%. As there is a certain gap between the top 30 enterprises in terms of competitiveness and expansion capacity, we expect that the large-scale, competitive and expansionary enterprises will have an average annual compound growth of no less than 25% in the next few years. There is still a large space for horizontal expansion and integration for such paper enterprises

introduce the concept of circular economy and production system. In terms of new production capacity, it can reduce fiber resources and energy consumption and reduce pollutant emissions. As an enterprise adopting the concept of circular economy and production system, it can also reduce its operating costs and environmental pollution at the same time. It can be predicted that in the next few years, enterprises will introduce the concept of circular economy and production system in the new production capacity, which is a choice for enterprises to enhance their competitiveness and will become a development direction

pay attention to three types of leading enterprises

based on the above analysis of the future development trend of the industry, we believe that three types of enterprises or three types of business models have the most competitive advantages: first, a paper-making enterprise integrating forest paper or bamboo paper and reed paper with the ability to obtain upstream resources or resources; second, an enterprise with large scale and strong integration ability; Third, enterprises that pay attention to the business model of circular economy

first, continue to focus on enterprises with resources and resource acquisition capabilities. From our analysis and prediction of the development trend of domestic fiber resources in the future, we can see that in the next few years, the integration of forest and paper and the output of wood pulp, bamboo pulp and reed pulp will maintain a rapid development rate, and there is still a lot of room for the development of forest and paper integration, reed pulp and bamboo pulp. In 2007 and the future, when we focus on the investment value of enterprises with upstream resources, in addition to continuing to pay attention to forestry resources and forest paper integration enterprises, Attention should also be paid to the utilization of reed and bamboo resources and the companies with the ability to develop such resources and their future value

second, focus on enterprises with integration capabilities. With the advent of the low profit period, a number of large-scale and highly competitive enterprises in the industry have emerged, providing market opportunities for advantageous enterprises to realize low-cost expansion by using stock capacity through mergers and acquisitions. In the industry environment of basic balance between supply and demand and overcapacity of some products, enterprises with large scale, high operating efficiency and cost advantages in the industry will use more stock capacity and improve the operating efficiency of stock capacity through acquisitions and mergers in the future to achieve low-cost expansion, continue to expand scale advantages, and improve the profitability and value of enterprises

finally, we should pay attention to the paper-making enterprises that adopt the production system of circular economy. Because the production system with the function of circular economy can reduce the consumption of fiber resources and energy, reduce pollution emissions, play an obvious role in reducing costs and improving the profitability of products and the competitiveness of enterprises. It has a large application and development space in the capacity expansion and technological transformation of paper enterprises. Enterprises that can successfully apply the concept of circular economy and production system will show obvious competitive advantages in the future market

forest paper integration and raw material advantages

in 2008, we will follow two investment mainlines of performance growth: first, a forest paper integration company with resource advantages; Second, due to structural changes in raw materials and consumption upgrading, companies with substantial growth in performance or companies with strong ability to sustain growth in performance

among forestry paper integrated paper companies, special attention should be paid to companies with early forest cultivation and large forestry scale. Due to the increasingly prominent resource and cost advantages and strong sustainable development ability of forestry paper integrated paper-making enterprises, such companies will have strong profitability and growth in the future, which should continue to be focused on. Here, we continue to focus on Yueyang paper, which is the first to engage in the construction of forest paper integration, and Chenming paper, which is currently engaged in the construction of forest paper integration

among the companies whose performance has increased significantly due to structural changes in raw materials, we mainly recommend Bohui paper; Due to the consumption upgrading, we mainly recommend sun paper among the companies that support the continuous growth of performance

■ recommended by key enterprises

Chenming Paper

Chenming paper is the industry leader with strong integration ability. As of 2006, the sales revenue has ranked first and output ranked second in the industry for many consecutive years. Strong ability to control the industry, horizontal integration and low-cost expansion

the company's Zhanjiang forest pulp project has been launched. The company needs to issue H shares, and about HK $3billion of financing is used to invest in Zhanjiang forest pulp project to solve the project capital bottleneck. The issuance of H shares has been reported to the relevant approval departments. If the issuance is successful, the company will form a forest pulp paper integration mode. With the enhancement of raw material control, Chenming Paper's huge papermaking scale will be guaranteed by resources, which will significantly enhance the cost advantage, the value-added ability of the industrial chain and the comprehensive competitiveness

Bohui paper

Bohui paper has strong executive ability, and has built a "combination of copper, aluminum and other materials"; Article rdquo These advantages make the company have the potential to further expand the business scale of Coated Whiteboard and become an industry oligarch

the production scale of the company's cultural paper with straw pulp as the main raw material ranks first among similar enterprises. Recently, the state has increased the closure of paper mills that fail to meet environmental protection standards, which will greatly improve the profitability of the company's cultural paper; The company's paperboard business is ranked among the top three in China with sun paper and Hongta paper, especially cigarette cards. At present, the annual output is close to 150000 tons. We judge that the white paperboard Market will continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 10% in the next few years. The second additional project will become the profit growth point in 2008 and 2009: gypsum board face paper is to find new growth points from differentiated products, and the products have good market prospects; Another chemical mechanical pulp project will significantly reduce the company's raw material costs. We expect the company's performance to increase significantly in 2008

Taizhu Fanyang paper

sun paper positioning high-end, high-end cultural paper and packaging paper scale

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