The hottest paper industry will suffer from imbala

Next year or at this stage, the imbalance between supply and demand in the paper industry

in 2009, various indicators of the mainland paper industry recovered in an all-round way and achieved profit recovery. From January to November, the cumulative output of paper reached 8467.38 tons, an increase of 11.9%, exceeding the level of the whole year of 2008; The inventory of manufacturers showed a downward trend, and the downstream inventory increased to the average level; In the first 11 months, the growth rate of industry revenue turned positive (4.15%), the decline of profit was significantly narrowed (-1.37%), the profit recovery was completed, and the third quarter returned to the average level since 2006, second only to the boom peak from 2007 to 2008 in the fourth quarter

however, in 2009, major paper-making enterprises took advantage of the weakness of the industry to achieve low-cost expansion. From 2010, new production capacity will be released one after another. Compared with the steady growth of demand, the increase of impulse supply may lead to the imbalance of supply and demand at the end of June this year and the rise of raw material prices, which may affect the profitability of some kinds of paper. The order of paper prosperity is white card paper, uncoated culture paper, paper, carton board paper and coated paper

it is expected that the downstream of the paper industry will recover relying on consumption and exports, the international competitive advantage of paper products will appear to drive exports, and the national economic restructuring policy will promote the integration of supply and stock. These events will drive the industry to develop in a direction conducive to paper enterprises, but the process is still uncertain

the profit of the paper industry will still maintain an increase of more than 25% in 2010, but the expectation of declining profit growth will put pressure on the improvement of valuation. At present, the P/E ratios of major listed companies from 2009 to 2010 are 19 times and 16 times respectively, and the P/B ratio is 2.2 times. The relative market P/B ratio of the paper industry is still 13% lower than the historical average

recommend companies with new capacity contribution and pulp and paper industry chain extension in 2010

attack combination: Sun Paper (the new pulp and paper production capacity has been put into operation, and the cooperation project is getting better), Huatai Co., Ltd. (the paper industry has been used for the mass production integration of office chairs, and the cost advantage of chemical business. The words in the page are identified through dictionary files)

defense combination: Chenming Paper (low price to book ratio, ordinary high and low temperature test box 1 generally refers to the high self-sufficiency rate of constant high and low temperature test box pulp), Bohui paper (new production capacity is put into operation successively)

theme Investment: Yueyang Paper (multiple benefits from rising pulp prices and integration expectations)